2012-09-18

Baseless Polaris Prize speculation

With the Polaris Prize announcement coming a week from now, I thought I would go for some wild and baseless speculation. I have only heard five of these albums in their entirety, but let's break down this year's list for some likely totally erroneous guesses at who might have a chance to win this year's prize.

The gala will be streamed live on Muchmusic.com on September 24th at 8pm

Here's the nominee shortlist:

  • Cadence Weapon – Hope In Dirt City
  • Cold Specks – I Predict A Graceful Expulsion
  • Drake – Take Care
  • Kathleen Edwards – Voyageur
  • Feist – Metals
  • Fucked Up – David Comes To Life
  • Grimes – Visions
  • Handsome Furs – Sound Kapital
  • Japandroids – Celebration Rock
  • YAMANTAKA // SONIC TITAN – YT//ST


If I'm on the jury, I would take the following into account:

No hip-hop record has ever won the prize.

No artist has won the prize twice.

No female artist has ever won the prize.

Last year's winner, Arcade Fire, could be considered a pretty big act compared to its fellow nominees. This may cause the jury to favour more 'indie' artists. However, the fact that Arcade Fire won at all was a surprise, in my opinion, considering they had recently won the Grammy for Album of the Year.

The jury is not afraid to go with an unexpected or underdog choice (Karkwa, Final Fantasy).

Past winners have been pretty much split between Toronto (and area) and Montreal (and area).

Adventurous musicality seems to be rewarded.


Considering all this, here's what I'm thinking. Since I haven't heard all the albums fully, and simply for the purposes of this possibly foolhardy exercise, I will assume that they are at least perceived to have equal artistic merit:

Good bets to win: Cadence Weapon (genre, geography), Cold Specks (relatively unknown artist, female)

Could go either way/I'm not sure: Handsome Furs, Japandroids, Grimes, YT//ST

Unlikely to win: Fucked Up (previous winner), Feist, Drake (pretty big artists), Kathleen Edwards (perhaps not 'cutting-edge' enough)


Welp, there you go. Totally uneducated, wild guesses.

Thoughts?

2 comments:

Adam Walker said...

I can't speak to much of this with authority, other than to say that it would be a surprise if they went with Drake, mostly because a superior hip-hop album was on the long list and wasn't picked (The Weeknd).

Do you get the feeling that maybe the internet hype machine behind The Weeknd peaked too late for House of Balloons and too early for Echoes of Silence?

In any event, I pick Feist - mostly because her winning would give me an excuse to tell the story of how my dad ended up at one of her shows and fell asleep.

Adam
http://walkerweb.ca

phatmat said...

Yep, looks like you called it!